Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 7.715547 8.862751 10.100615 11.532929 13.141818 14.890417 16.931826
2026-02-08 5.926423 7.451629 9.228112 11.439345 14.106276 17.206728 21.070817
2026-02-15 4.986251 6.649737 8.685251 11.339202 14.685694 18.741001 23.999939
2026-02-22 4.335227 6.095513 8.346333 11.403510 15.410855 20.443905 27.196049
2026-03-01 3.935637 5.790668 8.253309 11.715728 16.403840 22.469113 30.836211
2026-03-08 3.441123 5.291059 7.837426 11.537741 16.704315 23.577563 33.309412
2026-03-15 2.932331 4.707812 7.239470 11.037751 16.499698 23.961226 34.789308
2026-03-22 2.731396 4.549477 7.220489 11.336763 17.403201 25.874580 38.419809
2026-03-29 2.534866 4.374058 7.154413 11.549754 18.179398 27.630009 41.892570
2026-04-05 2.291101 4.097476 6.907981 11.465704 18.500565 28.735177 44.470941
2026-04-12 2.064364 3.824020 6.639940 11.320845 18.708243 29.667756 46.819901
2026-04-19 1.895111 3.628695 6.477060 11.322348 19.128275 30.919034 49.675123
2026-04-26 1.756100 3.475156 6.374423 11.419519 19.712813 32.461243 53.063552
2026-05-03 1.599737 3.275007 6.177133 11.345355 20.016292 33.582843 55.857632
2026-05-10 1.455785 3.081612 5.973020 11.239492 20.251776 34.594637 58.505203
2026-05-17 1.353480 2.955759 5.875588 11.305562 20.767879 36.063135 61.917052
2026-05-24 1.295804 2.910346 5.917522 11.614605 21.703652 38.237834 66.528994
2026-05-31 1.176815 2.730184 5.697047 11.438256 21.793654 39.031001 68.934624
2026-06-07 1.029868 2.476433 5.316735 10.941992 21.292647 38.815313 69.669009
2026-06-14 0.990874 2.446523 5.363297 11.238749 22.207714 41.005442 74.461143
2026-06-21 0.944803 2.396438 5.365702 11.450102 22.976004 42.971482 78.942238
2026-06-28 0.871287 2.277504 5.220574 11.366697 23.198284 44.002091 81.868874
2026-07-05 0.798329 2.151805 5.051160 11.222943 23.297469 44.816256 84.445848